There's some seasonal fluctuation - not much. In the region of 120% yoy growth.
If you've had a good month I can see the temptation to take those figures and multiple by 12. However, it's not as simple as that, unfortunately. Your run rate is a financial prediction based on your current performance. So, it would be reasonable to plot your performance over the last year (or two) and use that to extrapolate likely future trajectory.
It is always exclusive of VAT.
I’m a finance professional with experience in valuation, exits, and financial modeling for growth-stage and mid-market companies.
When quoting a run-rate (especially in the context of an exit, fundraising, or investor presentation), always use normalized, VAT-exclusive revenue — investors want to see operational performance, not tax-included sales.
The simplest method is current month × 12, if your business is relatively stable. But in most investor materials, it’s more credible to annualize the latest quarter × 4, as it smooths out short-term seasonality.
If you’re growing 120 % YoY, also show both metrics — “Current run-rate (based on Q3) = $X M ARR, up 120 % YoY.” That highlights momentum while staying transparent.
The key is consistency: pick one method, label it clearly (“Run-rate revenue, annualized from Q3 FY 2025, ex-VAT”), and keep it comparable across updates.
If you’d like, I can walk you through how to structure your run-rate and valuation metrics for investor decks or exit discussions — happy to discuss in a short call.
