Loading...
Answers
MenuHow to value the exit price for a early stage startup? Multiple of current or forecasted revenues?
Answers
"Based on the success we are able to achieve" suggests, to me, you are looking at a price that will be tagged to an earn out provision. In other words, the price of the deal will be contingent on you achieving specific revenue targets in the future. If I'm reading this wrong, please correct me because it's an important piece of information.
Early stage startup typically suggests a focus on revenue growth with minimal focus on earnings. The most valuable acquisitions will be those that have growth in the top quartile of the industry along with an EBITDA that is also in the top quartile. Companies with these will have the highest multiples.
Revenue multiples are also a function of the industry and the general character of the market. Currently, the IPO markets are doing pretty well and the overall M&A market appears to be pretty solid making multiples equally solid.
In terms of industry, the media publishing industry has moderate to slow growth depending on the segment. I'm assuming there is a social or online component to your startup which would suggest that it would be part of the new growth side of the market. Generally speaking, market growth averages are at about 8% for larger companies suggesting that new entrants should be able to sustain low to mid double digit growth over a longer horizon.
"Growth rates", i.e. percentages, can be meaningless for very small companies. For instance, a company that grows from $25,000 to $250,000 in a year has a massive growth rate..... but the value may be very low due to lack of track record and overall profitability. As such, it can be very hard to estimate multiples.
That said, if I were putting forth a hypothetical, it would be something like the following:
Assuming: The company has over $1M in revenue and is growing at an average of 12 - 15% per year.
Assuming: The company is profitable, but barely, say something in the 10% EBITDA range.
Assuming: The company is a service company with few assets but is not subject to significant brain drain (key people leaving would result in devaluing the company).
If any of the above are wrong, it can change things significantly.
Revenue multiples might be in the 0.7 - 1.15x revenue on forward looking and .9 - 1.25 on a trailing level.
EBITDA Multiples could be in the 8 - 10 times on a forward looking and 10 - 12 times on a trailing level.
Take it with a grain of salt because there are a lot of factors you don't mention and more information is important to make a meaningful diagnosis.
This is a bit dated but one of the best articles I've read on valuation. I found it helpful when thinking about the issue for a company I was trying to sell and I couldn't possibly add anything to it. So here you go:
I believe it is not that simple. The pre-money valuation and the amount invested determine the investor’s ownership percentage following the investment. For example, if the pre-money valuation is $4 million and the investment is $1 million, then the percentage ownership is calculated as:
Equity owned by investor = Amount invested ÷ (Agreed pre-money valuation + Amount invested)
Equity percentage owned by investor = $1M/ ($4M + $1M) = 20%
Post-money valuation = Pre-money valuation + Amount invested
= $4M + $1M = $5M
The pre- and post-money valuations cannot be analysed in isolation when evaluating the financial merits of a proposed valuation. You should also consider other factors—such as liquidation preferences and dividends—to determine if it truly is a good deal.
Most traditional corporate finance valuation methodologies do not work well for early-stage companies. Discounted cash flow (DCF) is an appropriate methodology for established companies that have a history of revenues and costs. Assumptions about market growth rates, market share, gross margins and other variables can be made to generate scenarios that will establish a valuation range. These assumptions cannot be accurately approximated for an early-stage company, which makes the results questionable.
Price/earnings (P/E) multiple is not appropriate, since most early-stage businesses are losing money. Price/sales (P/S) may be used if a company has generated some sales for a few years.
Most venture capital funds (VCs) investing in early-stage companies will use two valuation methodologies to establish the price they will pay for an investment:
1. Recent comparable financings: The VC will identify similar companies, in sector and stage, as the investment opportunity. Several databases—including VentureSource, Venture Wire and VentureXpert —might provide information that establishes a valuation range for comparable companies. However, transactions that are more than two years old are not considered market. Although some information may not be public, many entrepreneurs and VCs know through word of mouth what the recent valuations have been for comparable companies.
2. Potential value at exit: VCs and other investors have a good sense of a company’s exit value. The value can be based either on recent merger and acquisition (M&A) transactions in the sector or the valuation of similar public companies. Most early-stage investors look for 10 to 20 times the return on their investment (later-stage investors tend to look for 3 to 5 times the return) within two to five years.
For example, assume an exit valuation of $100 million and the VC owns 20% of the company at the time of the exit. The VC would earn $20 million on their investment at exit. If the VC invested $1 million into the company, they would make 20 times their investment. If the VC owned 20% for a $1 million investment, then the post-money valuation of the company at the time of the initial investment was $5 million. As you can see, investors use the post-money valuation to estimate the price an investment must command when they exit or sell the company.
Investors will use these methodologies to set a valuation range. They will have a maximum valuation based on their view of the future valuation and the perceived competitiveness for the deal but will try to keep the price they pay closer to the lower part of the range.
Besides if you do have any questions give me a call: https://clarity.fm/joy-brotonath
Related Questions
-
How did WhatsApp go from a valuation of $1.5 billion in Feb 2013 to $19 billion in Feb 2014?
In short, someone was willing to pay $16bn, therefore it's worth $16bn. Trying to tie intrinsic value to private companies is tough, and doesn't follow a logical path. If you look at Facebook's angle, it becomes pretty clear: When you have 1 billion users, but still want to grow, you have to pay for it. FB looked at the WhatsApp acquisition purely from a user acquisition perspective, they paid $45 per user, which is a justifiable fee on their end. What makes it crazy is there were a lot of users involved. Because Facebook has become a mobile app company, and WhatsApp adds to the company portfolio, it makes long-term sense. Additionally, much of WhatsApps user base was international, which is a huge untapped chunk of the world for Facebook. Acquiring WhatsApp allowed FB to make a big international splash in no time.MN
-
What are the pros/ cons of outsourcing app development vs. building an internal development team? Would this affect the value of the company?
Don't Outsource. Period. While there are big drawbacks with outsourcing related to building internal expertise the real reason I would never outsource at your stage is the need for speed and flexibility. Per your description, you are an early stage start-up with a MVP that is gathering data. Congratulations as that is a big accomplishment! However, you inevitably have a ton to learn about what your prospective customers need most and what customers deserve your attention most. The means you will be tweaking your product constantly for the foreseeable future and having to submit ideas to an outsourced team, make sure they understand what you want, wait for the new feature to be scheduled, etc is just too slow and too expensive. You should have your developers literally sitting next to you and (if you have one besides yourself) your product person so you can quickly and constantly share information. Good luck! You are in for a fun ride...GH
-
I'm trying to compute a future value for my SaaS company for my financial projections. Can anyone help me find what to use as an earnings multiple?
The answer really depends on many factors. You are correct that many SaaS companies valuation falls into the range of 3 to 9 times revenue. I would say that companies that have a very high net income % (25%+) would fall more to the range of 7x-9x and companies that are closer to breakeven or low single digit net income percentages would fall to on the lower range. Also you need think look at how your company will be viewed from a competitive perspective. If you dominate your market but many many new competitors are entering that may discount the overall valuation. But if you are increasing market share within new market with little or no competition the future looks brighter from a valuation / cash flow perspective due to lower overall cost per acquisition of new customers. Hope this help. Let me know if you need anymore help.BD
-
We're a renowned and profitable SAAS travel business, but our banker can't find the right buyer, is this a common issue?
Naturally 1001 variables play into this that I'm blind to but here are some assumption laced thinking points: You're profitable, upwards trending, business, in a very competitive vertical. Yes? You guaranteed have a Buyer, unless: 1. Your asking price is outrageous. Not likely as we've closed strategic sales that were 12x revenues. It doesn't get much more aggressive than that. 2. There aren't enough strategic or institutional buyers. Nope. The buyer market is wide with creative outreach. We've rarely tapped let's say 20% of our pool before successfully securing multiple qualified offers. (And we hold a 100% close rate). 3. You're so big ($1B+) that only a few have an opportunity to buy you AND they don't like you or your brand. Unlikely? More likely... 4. The outreach effort is nominal. Most brokers and M&A intermediaries boast a sub 40% closing ratio and far too many of them are "listing agents" -- whereby they list a property, announce it to a pool of buyers in their database and then "wait". We've seen deals that we normally turn around in 60-days with all-cash offers, take 18-months for "payment plan" deals closed by other firms. The results based on the experience and model employed is indeed apples to oranges. 5. How your business is presented (packaged) is not producing conversions. This too would then be a fault on your banker's side. We "spy on" the competition - it's business as usual on our end - and the typical prospectus and marketing collateral and followup materials are, well, embarassingly slim from, well, everybody. I've never encountered a problem with "the market" (the strategic buyers) and we've sold very niche and distressed properties. We have declined taking on deals where the asking price was a number picked out of la-la-land (in which case we offer complimentary guidance, feedback and let them pursue other avenues for closing the deal - which basically never happens at that asking price)... but that's a sensible discussion and likely one that was already had. If your exit is sub-$100M, your asking price is reasonable (even if aggressive), your business is indeed strong on its metrics, growth and brand value -- then any lack of offers sits with your banker. You're likely looking to play professional basketball but you brought in a kid from a high-school team. Skills mismatch. Upgrade your "player" and you'll move towards a win quite rapidly.RT
-
What is the average pre-money valuation of a enterprise/SaaS stat-up that is pre-revenue?
There is no valuation until you sell something. An idea or a company is only worth what its sales are. Once you have your initials sales, sales strategy and forecasting length (ie 9 months from first customer lead to close) then you have a formula for valuation. Valuation for start-ups is generally 3.5 x last years sales model should be the growth factor. When you are looking for investors, you will want to have atleast 9-18 months of SALES, not just pipeline and they will be looking at 5x revenue for a 3-5 year payback.TP
the startups.com platform
Copyright © 2025 Startups.com. All rights reserved.