Hi
I think depends heavily on the targeted group.
At some point we will see the rise of big platforms with standardized trainings for specialists and middle management. Here, it should gravitate to subscription model but different price plans and paid per worker within the program. The very simple reason is that with standardized products you would end up competing on price and the subscription model gives high benefits to HR Manager (predictable costs, no problems with meeting new demands not budgeted earlier) and for provider (lock-in for longer period and predictable cash flow).

The other group of solutions courses will be customized made specific to the needs of a specific group. When you look at the structure of the company actually those trainings make the biggest chunk of the training market. In this category you would have: welcome trainings, product trainings, internal procedure trainings, update trainings etc. Here it is more difficult to predict how it will be developing. Companies can be charged per training made or some sort of prepaid number of hour trainings. For sure this is where the innovation has to still happen and whoever is providing a more resilient, scalable solution will have higher chances of dominating the whole market

Btw I would not be surprised it companies start paying for exclusivity – to make sure that given trainings is not available to at least immediate competitors.

Best
Asen